Wait or Buy? Decoding the Market’s Next Big Move

In our market outlook published on November 14, 2024, we anticipated a temporary rally in the Nifty, projecting a rebound towards the 24,700–25,000 range before the broader downtrend resumed. (Read Here).

The market played out as expected, with Nifty peaking at 24,857 on December 5, 2024, before reversing sharply. The subsequent correction has now breached the November low of 23,263, reinforcing our view that the downtrend remains intact.

Given this backdrop, the key question remains: Is now the right time to buy? Let's analyze the current setup and potential opportunities.

Where Do We Go From Here?

The market has now breached both the 200-DMA and the November 2024 low of 23,263, reinforcing the continuation of the downtrend. Given this breakdown, our immediate target is the 2024 election day lows in the 21,300–21,800 range.

Based on historical correction patterns and Fibonacci projections, if the market approaches these levels in April/May 2025, it could present a potential buying opportunity. However, a decisive break below 21,300 would open the door for further downside, with the next support zone around 20,300–19,600, which may be tested by August/September 2025.

Final Thoughts

Markets are dynamic, and no single strategy is perfect for all conditions. Our extensive testing allows us to continuously refine our approach, ensuring that we stay adaptive, data-driven, and prepared for different market cycles.

For now, patience is key. Stay safe, stay informed, and happy investing!